Investment Thesis · NEAR HACKATHON

Corridor Index

Where NEAR actually wins at sending money home, tested against $543B a year of real remittances.

Try a corridorRead the verdict

0

corridors priced by the World Bank

0%

of tested money where NEAR is cheaper

$0B

a year in corridors NEAR wins

NEAR cheapertoo closeNEAR dearercrypto illegalThe 22 largest corridors, drawn from where the money is sent to where it lands.
United States → MexicoNEAR wins+$6.01 per $200United Arab Emirates → IndiaNEAR wins+$2.67 per $200United States → IndiaNEAR wins+$2.75 per $200United States → GuatemalaNEAR wins+$5.21 per $200Saudi Arabia → IndiaNEAR wins+$0.31 per $200United States → PhilippinesNEAR wins+$5.17 per $200Saudi Arabia → Pakistantoo closetoday 2.30%Kuwait → Indiatoo closetoday 2.26%Saudi Arabia → Egyptcrypto illegaltoday 3.44%United States → Dominican RepublicNEAR wins+$5.45 per $200United Kingdom → Indiatoo closetoday 1.99%Canada → Indiatoo closetoday 2.57%Saudi Arabia → Bangladeshcrypto illegaltoday 7.23%United States → El SalvadorNEAR wins+$3.33 per $200Australia → IndiaNEAR losestoday 3.43%United States → HondurasNEAR wins+$4.41 per $200Qatar → IndiaNEAR losestoday 1.82%United States → Chinacrypto illegaltoday 3.56%United States → VietnamNEAR wins+$7.63 per $200Oman → IndiaNEAR wins+$1.20 per $200United Arab Emirates → PakistanNEAR losestoday 0.63%United Arab Emirates → Egyptcrypto illegaltoday 2.91%Canada → PhilippinesNEAR wins+$0.73 per $200Saudi Arabia → Philippinestoo closetoday 2.76%United Kingdom → PakistanNEAR wins+$0.43 per $200United Arab Emirates → Bangladeshcrypto illegaltoday 7.15%France → Moroccocrypto illegaltoday 3.60%Spain → Moroccocrypto illegaltoday 3.80%United States → MexicoNEAR wins+$6.01 per $200United Arab Emirates → IndiaNEAR wins+$2.67 per $200United States → IndiaNEAR wins+$2.75 per $200United States → GuatemalaNEAR wins+$5.21 per $200Saudi Arabia → IndiaNEAR wins+$0.31 per $200United States → PhilippinesNEAR wins+$5.17 per $200Saudi Arabia → Pakistantoo closetoday 2.30%Kuwait → Indiatoo closetoday 2.26%Saudi Arabia → Egyptcrypto illegaltoday 3.44%United States → Dominican RepublicNEAR wins+$5.45 per $200United Kingdom → Indiatoo closetoday 1.99%Canada → Indiatoo closetoday 2.57%Saudi Arabia → Bangladeshcrypto illegaltoday 7.23%United States → El SalvadorNEAR wins+$3.33 per $200Australia → IndiaNEAR losestoday 3.43%United States → HondurasNEAR wins+$4.41 per $200Qatar → IndiaNEAR losestoday 1.82%United States → Chinacrypto illegaltoday 3.56%United States → VietnamNEAR wins+$7.63 per $200Oman → IndiaNEAR wins+$1.20 per $200United Arab Emirates → PakistanNEAR losestoday 0.63%United Arab Emirates → Egyptcrypto illegaltoday 2.91%Canada → PhilippinesNEAR wins+$0.73 per $200Saudi Arabia → Philippinestoo closetoday 2.76%United Kingdom → PakistanNEAR wins+$0.43 per $200United Arab Emirates → Bangladeshcrypto illegaltoday 7.15%France → Moroccocrypto illegaltoday 3.60%Spain → Moroccocrypto illegaltoday 3.80%

01Try a corridor

Send $200. See who keeps more.

Most NEAR theses measure the chain from the inside. This one tests it against a real market: what a family receives today, from the World Bank's price survey, against what it would receive if the money went through NEAR Intents, cash in and cash out included.

Amount

A typical provider today

$200.78

arrives · cost -0.39%

World Bank, Q3 2025, 21 providers checked for $200. Cheapest: -1.49%.

Through NEAR Intents

$194.22 – $196.22

arrives · cost 1.89%–2.89%

  • Cash in (KWD → USDT, P2P): 1.51%
  • Move across chains (NEAR Intents): 0.38%, ~80 s
  • Cash out (USDT → PKR, P2P): 0.00% (sells 3.83% above the official rate; not counted)
  • Allowance for worse fills and fees: 1.0%
NEAR loses

Asking NEAR Intents for a live quote…

02The answer

NEAR's route is cheaper for 73% of the money we could test, but the token earns little from it.

The position

NEAR Intents usage

Long

The winning corridors carry about 8.6× what Intents moved in the last year. Cheaper is a real reason to switch.

The NEAR token

Neutral

Most of what users pay goes to solvers and integrators. Usage alone doesn't yet out-earn the NEAR minted each year.

Turn long the token when

  • Intents protocol revenue, share of NEAR's yearly new supply8.6%line: 15%
  • or NEAR's cut of each swap, in basis points2.9 bpline: 5 bp

Exit the usage call when

  • NEAR wins less of the tested money than72.9%line: 25%
  • Revenue at 10% adoption covers less new supply than7.4%line: 5%

Watch

  • Cost of the NEAR Intents leg, $2000.38%lower widens every win
  • Dollars sell above the official rate in India+12%demand, and regulatory risk
  • World Bank pricesQ3 2025next quarter re-tests every corridor

Every value above recomputes on each daily run; the lines were set on 14 Nov 2026. Not investment advice.

Where NEAR is cheaper

0%

of the money we could test: 128 of 187 corridors, $285B a year.

Families would keep

$0.0B a year

if every winning corridor switched to NEAR

What reaches NEAR

7.4%

of NEAR's yearly new supply, paid by protocol revenue at 10% adoption

The bull case holds on cost. Moving dollars across chains through NEAR Intents costs about 0.38% for $200 and takes about 1 minute. Even after buying the dollars and selling them again on local peer-to-peer markets, and allowing a full extra percentage point for bad fills, NEAR beats what families pay today in 128 corridors. Those corridors carry $285B a year, 73% of the money we could test.

It is not universal. In 44 corridors NEAR loses outright, including some of the cheapest in the world: Kuwait → Pakistan already costs -0.39% at the median provider. In 46 corridors ($73.0B a year) crypto is illegal at one end, and 115 more ($79.6B) have no public peer-to-peer market to test against.

Bigger transfers are a harder test. At $500, fixed fees weigh less for banks and exchange houses, and NEAR is cheaper for 62% of the tested money instead of 73%. Switch the calculator to $500 to see it corridor by corridor.

The bear case holds on value. Most of what users pay goes to solvers and integrators, not to NEAR. If a tenth of the winning corridors' money moved to NEAR Intents, protocol revenue would rise by about $8M a year, against $109M of NEAR minted. Real, and above the kill line, but small. Remittances make NEAR useful long before they make the token scarce.

Run by run

The verdict is re-tested every day, not written once.

Share of tested money where NEAR wins72.9%
0%50%100%kill line 25%13 Nov, 07:29 UTC: 74.1%13 Nov, 07:2913 Nov, 18:03 UTC: 73.6%13 Nov, 18:0314 Nov, 13:38 UTC: 72.9%14 Nov, 13:38
Protocol revenue at 10% adoption, vs new NEAR supply7.4%
0%5%10%kill line 5%13 Nov, 07:29 UTC: 7.2%13 Nov, 07:2913 Nov, 18:03 UTC: 7.2%13 Nov, 18:0314 Nov, 13:38 UTC: 7.4%14 Nov, 13:38

One point per data run (3 so far, times in UTC). A GitHub Action re-runs every source daily and adds a point; the full log is in history.json.

03The map

Where the money lands, and whether NEAR gets it there for less.

Mostly NEAR winsMixedMostly NEAR losesCrypto illegalCan't test
FijiTanzaniaW. SaharaCanadaUnited States of AmericaKazakhstanUzbekistanPapua New GuineaIndonesiaArgentinaChileDem. Rep. CongoSomaliaKenyaSudanChadHaitiDominican Rep.RussiaBahamasFalkland Is.NorwayGreenlandFr. S. Antarctic LandsTimor-LesteSouth AfricaLesothoMexicoUruguayBrazilBoliviaPeruColombiaPanamaCosta RicaNicaraguaHondurasEl SalvadorGuatemalaBelizeVenezuelaGuyanaSurinameFranceEcuadorPuerto RicoJamaicaCubaZimbabweBotswanaNamibiaSenegalMaliMauritaniaBeninNigerNigeriaCameroonTogoGhanaCôte d'IvoireGuineaGuinea-BissauLiberiaSierra LeoneBurkina FasoCentral African Rep.CongoGabonEq. GuineaZambiaMalawiMozambiqueeSwatiniAngolaBurundiIsraelLebanonMadagascarPalestineGambiaTunisiaAlgeriaJordanUnited Arab EmiratesQatarKuwaitIraqOmanVanuatuCambodiaThailandLaosMyanmarVietnamNorth KoreaSouth KoreaMongoliaIndiaBangladeshBhutanNepalPakistanAfghanistanTajikistanKyrgyzstanTurkmenistanIranSyriaArmeniaSwedenBelarusUkrainePolandAustriaHungaryMoldovaRomaniaLithuaniaLatviaEstoniaGermanyBulgariaGreeceTurkeyAlbaniaCroatiaSwitzerlandLuxembourgBelgiumNetherlandsPortugalSpainIrelandNew CaledoniaSolomon Is.New ZealandAustraliaSri LankaChinaTaiwanItalyDenmarkUnited KingdomIcelandAzerbaijanGeorgiaPhilippinesMalaysiaBruneiSloveniaFinlandSlovakiaCzechiaEritreaJapanParaguayYemenSaudi ArabiaN. CyprusCyprusMoroccoEgyptLibyaEthiopiaDjiboutiSomalilandUgandaRwandaBosnia and Herz.MacedoniaSerbiaMontenegroKosovoTrinidad and TobagoS. Sudan

04Four corridors

The same $200 tells four different stories.

  1. Kuwait → Pakistan

    NEAR loses

    Already cheap. NEAR loses.

    The median provider charges -0.39%: below zero, because some exchange houses give a better rate than the market. Buying dollars in Kuwait and selling them in Pakistan costs NEAR's route 1.89%–2.89%. Where competition is already fierce, a new rail adds nothing.

  2. United Arab Emirates → India

    NEAR wins

    The biggest Gulf corridor. NEAR wins.

    $27.5B a year leaves the UAE for India. The median provider charges 3.05%; NEAR's route 0.72%–1.72%. Dollars also sell for 12% more than the official rate on India's peer-to-peer market. We do not count that gain: it is a sign of demand, and a regulator's target.

  3. Saudi Arabia → Bangladesh

    Crypto illegal

    Expensive, and closed.

    Saudi Arabia → Bangladesh costs 7.23% online, one of the worst Gulf corridors, and NEAR would cost 2.24%–3.24%. But Bangladesh bans crypto. The corridors where NEAR could help most are often the ones where it is not allowed.

  4. United States → Mexico

    NEAR wins

    The world's largest corridor. NEAR wins.

    $65.4B a year goes from the US to Mexico. Online providers charge 4.38%; NEAR's route 0.38%–1.38%, because buying dollars costs nothing in the US and Mexico's peer-to-peer dollar price sits at the official rate.

05Every corridor

NEAR is cheaper in 128 of the 187 corridors we could test.

Cost of sending $200: today vs through NEAR

The 18 largest tested corridors by money sent. The dot at the right edge is the verdict.

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%United States → MexicoUnited Arab Emirates → IndiaUnited States → IndiaUnited States → GuatemalaSaudi Arabia → IndiaUnited States → PhilippinesSaudi Arabia → PakistanKuwait → IndiaUnited States → Dominican RepublicUnited Kingdom → IndiaCanada → IndiaUnited States → El SalvadorAustralia → IndiaUnited States → HondurasQatar → IndiaUnited States → VietnamOman → IndiaUnited Arab Emirates → Pakistan

Today: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide, Q3 2025, lower of the median provider and the online-provider average. NEAR: peer-to-peer cash in and out (Binance P2P, 14 Nov 2026, 13:39 UTC) plus the NEAR Intents dry-run quote (14 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC), plus a 1-point allowance.

NEAR wins 128 corridors and 73% of the money we could test ($285B of $391B a year).

VerdictCorridorNote
NEAR winsUnited States → Mexico$65.4B4.38%0.38%–1.38%+$6.00
NEAR winsUnited Arab Emirates → India$27.5B3.05%0.72%–1.72%+$2.66Dollars sell 12% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR winsUnited States → India$26.3B2.75%0.38%–1.38%+$2.74Dollars sell 12% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR winsUnited States → Guatemala$19.3B3.98%0.38%–1.38%+$5.20
NEAR winsSaudi Arabia → India$15.9B3.40%2.24%–3.24%+$0.32Banks barred from crypto at one end
NEAR winsUnited States → Philippines$13.4B3.96%0.38%–1.38%+$5.16
Too closeSaudi Arabia → Pakistan$10.7B2.30%2.24%–3.24%–Banks barred from crypto at one end
Too closeKuwait → India$9.9B2.26%1.89%–2.89%–Dollars sell 12% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR winsUnited States → Dominican Republic$8.6B4.10%0.38%–1.38%+$5.44
Too closeUnited Kingdom → India$8.1B1.99%1.25%–2.25%–Dollars sell 12% above the official rate (not counted)
Too closeCanada → India$7.9B2.57%1.64%–2.64%–Dollars sell 12% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR winsUnited States → El Salvador$7.5B3.04%0.38%–1.38%+$3.32
NEAR losesAustralia → India$7.0B3.43%3.76%–4.76%–Dollars sell 12% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR winsUnited States → Honduras$6.8B3.58%0.38%–1.38%+$4.40Beats even the cheapest provider
NEAR losesQatar → India$6.8B1.82%4.06%–5.06%–Banks barred from crypto at one end
NEAR winsUnited States → Vietnam$6.7B5.19%0.38%–1.38%+$7.62
NEAR winsOman → India$5.9B3.15%1.55%–2.55%+$1.20Dollars sell 12% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR losesUnited Arab Emirates → Pakistan$5.4B0.63%0.72%–1.72%–Dollars sell 4% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR winsCanada → Philippines$4.7B3.00%1.64%–2.64%+$0.72
Too closeSaudi Arabia → Philippines$4.4B2.76%2.24%–3.24%–Banks barred from crypto at one end
NEAR winsUnited Kingdom → Pakistan$3.6B2.46%1.25%–2.25%+$0.42Dollars sell 4% above the official rate (not counted)
NEAR winsUnited States → Colombia$3.4B4.27%0.83%–1.83%+$4.88Banks barred from crypto at one end
NEAR winsUnited Arab Emirates → Philippines$3.2B3.11%0.72%–1.72%+$2.78
NEAR winsUnited States → Ecuador$2.9B3.25%0.38%–1.38%+$3.74
NEAR winsSpain → Colombia$2.7B4.62%0.83%–1.83%+$5.58Banks barred from crypto at one end
Download every corridor as CSVCost today = the lower of the median provider and the online-provider average (World Bank, Q3 2025).

The thesis in full

Is it worth it for NEAR, what could make this wrong, and how every number is made.

Read the rest →